Two days ago, I’ve explained why in my opinion, Dot Net is actually better than Dot Web in terms of “meaningfulness” of the term on the right of the dot. Both are superior to Dot Com in that respect but, well… that doesn’t matter 
I believe it’s clear to everyone reading this post that nobody’s going to ever come close to Dot Com.
Let’s not even discuss that.
Instead, let’s try to figure out just what it would take to call Dot Web successful.
In my opinion, it will do better than most or perhaps all new gTLDs.
However, I expect an underwhelming performance overall.
I mean look, even in today’s environment in which there isn’t all that much demand for new gTLDs, I do believe a string like Dot Web will generate lots of interest. But some domainers are expecting a blockbuster performance from Dot Web and I for one think they’re too optimistic.
If we define “success” as generating profits each year then sure, it’ll obviously make enough to cover ICANN’s $25k fee and the other expenses
However, do keep in mind that Dot Web isn’t your average new gTLD… Verisign paid $135,000,000 for it. As such, if you define success as “generating a solid return based on what has been paid for it” which I think is a definition closer to reality, doing well is going to be harder.
If you define success as “how close to Dot Net will it get?” (with Dot Net having close to 15,000,000 names) then I for one think it will be almost impossible to get there unless they sell these names for pennies.
Dot Net has never been the star of the show but let’s face it, 15 million domains is an impressive number and unless Dot Web domains end up practically being given away, I just don’t see it happening.
I for one think Verisign should be very happy if they end up generating a good return on their investment. The 2nd definition, in other words.
Let’s assume that for each Dot Web domain, Verisign will net $7. At 4,000,000 domains after the first year, we’d be at $28,000,000 yearly, a number with which Verisign should be fairly happy. This is just a guesstimate on my part but I for one think this scenario would be a positive one for Verisign and at the same time, it would be reasonably realistic.
Anything more than let’s say 1/3 of Dot Net’s registrations is too optimistic IMO.
Dot Net is superior in terms of meaningfulness. It has been around for a looooong time and as such, people are aware it exists (awareness).
Frankly, I think 4,000,000 – 5,000,000 registrations are on the positive side if they end up pricing them similar to Dot Nets but again, we’ll see.
What about you guys? What do you think it would take to call Dot Web successful?
